PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER EXCLUSIVE

FALCONS NOT UP THE CREEK
By Walter Anaruk, NFL Draft Bible/Field Position

Atlanta Head Coach Bobby Petrino has options. It may not seem that way on the surface. Just about every recognized news outlet is asking, “What will the Atlanta Falcons do?”

Falcons starting quarterback Michael Vick is embroiled in a federal dog fighting case that involves 3 federal indictments and superceding indictments forthcoming. Vick was ordered by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell not to participate in Atlanta’s training camp until the NFL finishes its own probe into the investigation to see if the evidence against Vick is strong enough to warrant a Personal Conduct suspension. Not that it matters since the judge has decreed that Vick is no longer allowed to travel outside of the federal prosecutor’s jurisdiction. This restriction means Vick is not allowed to travel to games played on opponents fields.

As if Vick wasn’t enough of a concern and distraction for the Dirty Birds, a key injury and more criminal conduct once again put them in the headlines.

Warrick Dunn, the featured running back in the Atlanta offense has been diagnosed with herniated disks in his back. Dunn must undergo surgery and will miss most, if not all of training camp. Now 32 years old, Dunn is that rare player that improves late in an already solid career. Dunn quietly rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the last three consecutive seasons.

To make matters worse, Falcon’s cornerback Jimmy Williams was arrested and charged with misdemeanor charges of marijuana possession.

While these distractions and Dunn’s injury may make owner Arthur Blank’s head spin, they do not add up to the collapse of the Falcons’ season. Usually, the prospect of losing your starting running back and quarterback is an absolute nightmare. For the Falcons, several mitigating factors will work against conventional wisdom to such a degree that the Falcons may actually benefit.

Warrick Dunn is a terrible loss. However, the timetable set up for Dunn’s return puts him back on the field in time for the start of the regular season. Even though Dunn will miss all of training camp and the preseason, Dunn is a consummate professional with an excellent work ethic and understanding of the game. It is unlikely that he’ll require extensive study and coaching before he can be productive in Petrino’s new offensive scheme.

Dunn’s time away will most likely mean that backup running back Jerious Norwood will enter the season as the starter regardless of Dunn’s medical status. However, Norwood was exceptionally productive in his rookie season. Norwood is almost 25 pounds heavier than Dunn with home-run speed. Norwood amassed 633 yards and 2 touchdowns on 99 carries last season for a whopping 6.4 yards per carry. Not afraid to lower his shoulder and pound on defenses, Norwood runs hard between the tackles. While he is a bit smaller than the bruisers Petrino likes to use in his offense, Norwood’s style should compensate for his stature.

The real issue for the Falcons is the quarterback situation. With Michael Vick’s future uncertain, Petrino has anointed free agent acquisition Joey Harrington as the starter. Harrington has not found success to justify his lofty third-overall draft status. He suffered through four terrible seasons on a Lions team that may have been the worst team of its era and then endured a year of the Nick Saban Experience in Miami last season.
All of these points are not to say Joey Harrington is an All Pro in Bust’s clothing. However, Harrington may not be any worse for the implementation of Petrino’s offense than Vick. In fact, Harrington may be a better fit.

Petrino’s system is a spread offense using three and four receiver sets. It’s a quarterback friendly offense that requires the passer to drop back, read and throw.

Mike Vick made his living as both an NCAA and NFL quarterback on the strength of his speed and quickness. His ballyhooed status as the first NFL quarterback to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season is not relevant to the position as it is played in Petrino’s offense.

Harrington, just like every other quarterback in the NFL bar none, does not have Mike Vick’s speed and quickness. However, Harrington has made his living dropping back and passing. Unfortunately, a majority of his six years were spent dropping back into collapsing pockets. There is no doubt that Harrington is a bit shell-shocked. Players like David Carr can speak to how severely that kind of abuse can affect a player.

Harrington (55.2%) also has a better career completion percentage than Vick (53.8%). While that difference seems negligible, it is instructive to note that while Vick has thrown only 1,730 pass attempts in six seasons, Harrington has thrown 2,190 times in five seasons.

While Vick was enjoying protection from one of the leagues more consistent offensive lines, Harrington was shelled by pass rushers during his career. Harrington had to play in forced passing situations, late in games, as the Lions tried to come from behind. Those type of situations tend to have an influence on a quarterback’s completion percentage and interception total.

Until the arrival of Roy Williams, Harrington never had any reliable receivers. Even Williams did not find consistency in the NFL until offensive coordinator Mike Martz arrived and whipped the receivers’ work ethic up to snuff. By then, Harrington was no longer there to benefit.

I am not lauding Harrington as the franchise savior. I am not saying he’ll be n All-Pro. I am saying that Harrington will not be any worse than Vick for the Falcon’s at quarterback. His experience as a drop back passer will more than likely benefit the system. Even if he maintains his career completion percentage, the Falcons will not be any worse off than they were with Vick’s completion percentage.

Bobby Petrino once said that any quarterback could play in his system. He said he expected Vick to complete 65% of his passes. If he could be so bold about Vick, a running quarterback, why not about Harrington, a drop back passer?

Petrino has options. The Falcons world does not have to end if Vick never again dons a Falcons uniform. Petrino can lean on the existing depth. Who knows, he may even reach into his past and pull his former stand out Louisville quarterback Stefan LeFors out of the Arena 2 League. There’s certainly no reason to spend millions on a Daunte Culpepper or trade away draft futures for a poor value quarterback. Petrino has options. The best part is that they are already on his roster.

For more on Walter Anaruk, check our "Press Releases" section on the homepage of nfldraftbible.com to learn about our working relationship with fieldposition.com